About

I am an asset allocation fund manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. While stuff I post may look quite worky, this is actually a non-work blog.

If you want to follow me on Twitter I am @toby_n

Here are some links to stuff I’ve written that is not on this blog:

Stuff I’ve suggested and the government has done:

• That HM Treasury sweep the positive carry from BoE QE back to prevent the over-statement of the fiscal deficit, hence reducing it by c.£9bn a year. Nicely covered by The Times (pay-walled), and FTAV here. (To be fair, they swept all coupons rather than just positive carry, meaning that there will be payments flowing from HMT back to BoE if the QE assets are held to maturity.)
• Suggesting that HM Treasury call the War Loan, to deliver a c.£300m present value debt reduction.

Stuff I’ve suggested but the government hasn’t done:

• Neville Hill and I suggested a change to fiscal rules that would remove from them pro-cyclicality in Alphaville by linking understanding of debt sustainability to debt service costs. The piece went out shortly after a major report from the Resolution Foundation that included a similar line of argument, amidst a more comprehensive framework (government net worth targets etc) which all UK political parties adopted.
• Solve the UK pension crisis by funding the unfunded public sector pension schemes with tradable inflation-linked gilts so as to strengthen the public-sector employee claim, reversing a market distortion that I believed was killing the private sector defined benefit pension, and deepen capital markets. (I think that this idea might be passed its sell-by date as the public-sector union support may have shut down as they have seen their claims cut already, and pretty much all the remaining large private sector defined benefit pension schemes have closed.)

Stuff about economics/ markets

• A piece that Tony Yates and I wrote on VoxEU in October 2017 examining the Bank of Japan’s ETF purchase programme, estimating market impact.
• A comment piece in the FT in June 2017 about how investors have done well by investing in inflation-linked bonds because we have experienced disinflation.
• A piece that Matt Tickle and I wrote on VoxEU in 2017 examining a previously undiscussed transmission channel for QE in the UK: shadow borrowing from defined benefit pension schemes.
• A submission made to the UK Parliamentary Treasury Select Committee on post-2008 monetary policy in early 2017.
• David Aaronovitch did a nice Briefing Room Radio 4 programme on QE in September 2016, and kindly had me involved here. 
• A piece on How money works that I wrote up for colleagues and clients, which was generously examined by The Economist in June 2016 here.
• A blog on FT Alphaville about labour power, productivity and robots in 2016.
• A piece I wrote on VoxEU in May 2015 arguing that the natural rate of interest is determined by labour power. An extended and slightly more developed version won the Society of Business Economists’ 2015/16 Rybczynski Prize, and SBE members can view it here. And probably the most succinct and least geeky version that I wrote for Juncture in 2016, here.
• My MPhil dissertation that I wrote about the political economy of the Southern Cone currency and debt crisis of 1998-2002. I’d managed the EM bond portfolios at my old firm during the latter half of this period (I wrote this piece on a brief sabbatical), and this is pretty much a practitioner’s perspective, informed by a bunch of anonymous policymaker and practitioner interviews, a whole lot of reading, and the supervision of Michael Kuczynski.
• If you want to see my professional views on my employer’s website, have a look here and here. There is usually one or two things a quarter, plus videos of the investment outlook, fund reviews etc.

Finally, not content with one non-work blog, my Ello is here. This has little blogs that I write from time to time on tube journeys home.